Successful Agni-III missile tests provide India with a credible deterrent, boost for DRDO

10 Feb 2010: NDTV quotes Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Ma Zhaoxu as saying that India and China are friends and that China does not see the missile as a threat. 

08 Feb 2010 8ak: In a significant step forward for India’s missile development program, DRDO has successfully tested the 3,500 km range Agni-III missile on Saturday. The missile, which was tested from the Inner Wheeler Island at Dhamra, a launch site in Bhadrak district, about 200 km from Orissa capital Bhubaneswar, travelled 350 km into the sky before re-entering the atmosphere.

8ak had earlier reported that India was in the process of testing Agni-III. The test was critical for the armed forces because the missiles range gives India the capability to hit territories deep inside China, which includes important cities like Beijing and Shanghai. According to TravelMath, the distance from India's capital New Delhi to Beijing is about 3,800km and 4,200 for Shanghai. (missiles will be fired from eastern borders, not Delhi, hence all major Chinese cities are within the range).

This is the fourth test of the country's most powerful missile. The first test of the missile was conducted on July 9, 2006 from Wheeler Island. After the launch, it was reported that the second stage of the rocket had failed to separate and the missile had fallen well short of its target. Agni-III was again tested on April 12, 2007, this time successfully, from the Wheeler Island off the coast of Orissa. On May 7, 2008 India again successfully test fired this missile. The Agni-III missile is expected to be fully operational by 2012-2013.

The tests are significant as it validates the missiles operational readiness while extending the reach of India's nuclear deterrent to most high-value targets of the nation's most likely adversaries. The missile, with its range, is expected to bolster India’s credible deterrence capability against China. 

A top DRDO official told 8ak that the missile’s Circular Error Probable (CEP) is within 40 meters range, which makes it one of the most sophisticated and accurate ballistic missiles of its range class in the world. Work on the upgraded version of Agni-III missile known as Agni-V has commenced. The missile is expected to have a range of 5,000-6,000 km. It is a three stage solid fuelled missile with composite motor casing in the third stage. Two stages of this missile will be made with advanced composite materials. Agni-V will be able to carry multiple warheads and will have countermeasures against Anti-ballistic missile systems.

India has a very ambitious missile development program. Over the years India has tried to develop numerous new missiles to bolster its attack and retaliatory capabilities. In 2009, the 700km-range nuclear-capable submarine- launched ballistic missile (SLBM) Samaria was tested. Other indigenously built missiles to be tested by India in 2009 year are the 350km-range Prithvi and Russia-India developed supersonic missile Brahmos. These missiles are being developed under the aggressive Integrated Guided Missiles Program (IGMP) launched in 1983 by India to develop futuristic missiles technology based on hypersonic rockets to provide a potent weapon to the armed forces in order to enhance national security.

The DRDO is also developing Astra beyond Visual Range Air-to-Air missile (BVRAAM) for which the captive flight trials are going on. A 2008 Dawn News report quoting India's Mail Today (via Defence.pk) claims that Pakistan has a far more superior missile capabilities compared to India. An overview of Pakistan's missile technology is on Nuclear Threat Initiative. 

Singapore Air Show dampened by Chinese threats to U.S.

04 Feb 2010 8ak: China warned the U.S. over the approval of a US$6.4 billion weapons package for Taiwan. The expectation was that the Obama administration would cave-in, instead Obama went one step ahead and agreed to meet the Dalai Lama. As tension increased, Obama went ahead another 3 steps by promising tougher action against China on trade, on cyber attack issues and acknowledging a greater role for Indian in the region as a 'net provider of security'.

This will necessarily dampen the enthusiasm from Chinese airlines buying U.S. planes for its rapidly going internal expansion. While the total number of planes in India is around 300-350, a single Chinese airline, Air China Ltd, expects to have around 400 in the 5 to 6 years and plans to buy 100 of these within this year. And if this was not enough, Comac, China's state owned jumbo jet producer will also display its 168 seater plane at the Air Show, further cutting in to Airbus and Boeing's market share in the coming years. Incidentally, the engine is an American GE/French Safran product.

But there is a sense of optimism as BBC reported "Globally, passenger demand rose 4.5% in December 2009, compared with a particularly dismal December 2008. Asian airlines recorded an improvement of 8% in the same period." Secondly, the Air Show is gaining recognition for military sales which are less susceptible to economic trends. 

Some good coverage on FlightGlobal including this article "IAI plans to convert used 767s in to tanker transports".

Video: India's anti-satellite program

25 Jan 2009 8ak: Video interview of DRDO's Dr Saraswat about India developing the anti-satellite weapon in response to Chinese threat of shooting down enemy satellites post its 2007 weapons test. He is quoted in Missile Defence Advocacy as follows "We are working to ensure space security and protect our satellites. At the same time we are also working on how to deny the enemy access to its space assets,".

And India is not the only one scared. In the U.S., DoD Buzz reports that Gen. Norton Schwartz, Air Force Chief of Staff said that "in the face of threats from jamming and attacks on satellites the United States must lessen its dependence on the Global Positioning System and develop alternatives to GPS, the top Air Force general said today." Full news. 

Nobody wants it, but the space war is on and as per Chinese Air Chief's earlier statement reported on 8ak the space war is on, its inevitable and it is a historic event. 

Chinese Admiral proposes permanent naval base in the Gulf of Aden

14 Jan 2010 8ak: Chinese Rear Admiral Yin Zhou has floated the idea of setting up an overseas naval base in the Gulf of Aden after paying a ransom of US$ 4 million to the Somali pirates for the release of Chinese ship – “De Xin Hai” in the beginning of the year. The Chinese naval ships have been patrolling the Somali waters and escorting Chinese and foreign ships operating in the region, however, they have been having difficulties in patrolling the coal and ore shipping lanes. Last October, the pirates managed to capture a China’s “De Xin Hai” ship 700 miles east of Somalia and had its custody for over nine weeks. 

The proposed move has got the world leaders talking about the possibility of China setting up more such bases in the future as it has been for some time that the China is looking to upgrade and modernise its sea force. The Chinese are also looking to establish their supremacy in the Indian Ocean, a move which has alerted the Indian security establishment. However, Rear Admiral Zhou rubbishes any aggressive claims pertaining to the plans of establishing an overseas naval base. He defends the move in his interview by citing the Taiwan example. He says that even though China considers Taiwan to be it territory, it had never used force against them. 

A stable base would help smoothen the flow of supplies and increase maintenance levels of ships and be more cost effective as well. The number of hostage like situation involving ships have been on an upswing in the waters of poverty engulfed Somalia. Following the alarming rise in the situation international naval forces have stepped up patrolling in the region to ensure safe passage of ships. If the deputy chief of Russian Navy general staff is to be believed there could be over 5,000 pirates operating in the Somali waters. The United Nations had reported that a total of over US$150 million was paid to the pirates in 2008 as ransom. 

The navy of Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) sent out 4 taskforces and 11 warships for escort missions in the region and logged 10,000-odd navigation hours covering a distance of 100,000-odd nautical miles. The four taskforces escorted nearly 1,000 merchant ships of over 100 batches. Other International navy’s patrolling the Gulf of Aden besides all permanent members of the UN Security Council are from India, Denmark, Canada, Italy, Germany, Iran, Malaysia and Saudi Arabia.

An interesting article on the possibility of Pakistan-Pirates nexus was posted on Thaindian.

Pakistan-China mounts pressure on India

14 Jan 2010 8ak: Pakistan and China are increasingly mounting pressure on India by adopting different approaches. While, Pakistan is using terrorism as a tool to destabilise its neighbour, China is slowly and steadily grabbing Indian Territory. In a recent incident involving Pakistani militants, India’s paramilitary force-BSF (Border Security Force) foiled an infiltration bid along the Indo-Pak border on Monday. This was the fourth infiltration bid in within a week. The militants carried out a blast to cut the fencing along the border. However, alert BSF men on duty detected the activities of the militants marking the beginning of a fierce gun battle between the two sides in Akhnoor sector of Jammu district.

The first infiltration bid this year was foiled by BSF at Narianpur Border out Post in Ramgarh sub-sector of Samba district on January 4. It was followed by another infiltration bid along Line of Control (LoC) in Balakote area of Poonch district on January 8. A patrolling party of BSF also foiled another infiltration bid after a brief fire fight when militants after cutting the fence had come inside in the forward area of Garkhal in Pargwal belt of Akhnoor tehsil in Jammu district yesterday.

If Pakistan was not enough, China is also exerting pressure on India. An official government report has stated that India has lost substantial amount of land to China in the past two decades. This is attributed to the difference in the maps of various agencies of the LAC and that there was a lack of proper mapping of the area. A fact accepted by government officials at a high profile meeting held in December comprising officials of the Jammu and Kashmir government, union ministry of home affairs and the Army.

According to the minutes of the meeting, it was also identified that "there is a lack of institutional memory in various agencies as well as clear policy on this issue which in long run has resulted in loss of territory by the India in favour of China. The cases of Chinese intrusion have been on an upswing in the past year leading India to lodge strong diplomatic protest over the issue. Last year, Chinese troops had entered nearly 1.5 km into the Indian Territory on July 31 near Mount Gya, recognised as International border by India and China, and painted boulders and rocks with "China" and "Chin9" in red spray paint.

The 22,420 ft Mount Gya, also known as "fair princess of snow" by Army, is located at the tri-junction of Ladakh in Jammu and Kashmir, Spiti in Himachal Pradesh, and Tibet. Its boundary was marked during the British era and regarded as International border by the two countries. Before this, Chinese helicopters had violated Indian air space on June 21 along the Line of Actual Control in Chumar region and also helli-dropped some expired food.

Large scale cyber attack on Google China, threatens to pull out, stops censoring

13 Jan 2009 8ak: Google has become the latest victim of China's (admirable) abilities in cyber warfare and espionage. Zdnet reported that the attack was severe enough to prompt Google to threaten to withdraw from China, one of the biggest internet markets in the world. It has since withdrawn most of the Censorship required by China. 

For once, India needs to be proactive and build up capabilities of a counter attack and not wait for an actual attack before the powers-that-be wake up.