First photo of China's J-15 fighter for aircraft carrier

12 Jul 2010 8ak: China's rapid advance continues with the first photo appearing of its naval fighter the J-15 designed for its aircraft carrier. While Chinese analysts deny that this is a rip-off of the Russian Su-33, having seen the aircraft analysts say that it is a copy made from a Su-33 prototype that Ukraine sold to China. The radars and weapons will be indigenous.

Other analysts believe that China may have settled for lesser stealth features due to budget constraints. 

Chinese defence review claimed that China has launched aircraft personnel training project, training centers may be located in Huludao.

More details of the aircraft are here including a 'statement' that it is in the same class as a Boeing Super Hornet. Video and discussion here. 

Russian wargame Vostok 2010 aimed at China?

03 Jul 2010 8ak: Watch the video of the Sukhoi Su-34 with a Glosnass guided missile and simulator with summarised translation by Igor here. The Su-34 are among the 70 fighter jets in the ongoing Russian war games “Vostok-2010” in Siberia and Russian Far East and in what will be most disturbing to the Chinese, in the sea of Japan. In March 2010, it was reported that China had leased a port from North Korea giving it direct access to the Sea of Japan for the first time in a hundred years.

The 30 ships participating in the 10 day exercise includes the missile cruisers 'Moskva' and the nuclear-powered 'Pyotr Veliky'. Compared to 2008's 8,000 troops, this years exercise has 20,000. Singaporean Straits Times reflects the view of some analysts who say that Russia is increasingly concerned over a possible future Chinese occupation of the sparsely populated land bordering the two neighbours especially beyond the Ural mountains in Russia. Given that the games are being held on the borders China and Mongolia and the fact that a Chinese military delegation was invited to observe the war games, it may be that Russia wants to make China subtly aware of its capabilities to defend its territory. 

However, interesting article from Jamestown Foundation that says that in a Russia-China confrontation, Russia may not be able to achieve air-superiorty (with China having illegally copied Russian fighters!) and hence will have to fast resort to nuclear weapons, and not conventional war, as the key deterrent. Russian officials deny that the wargames are in response to China or tensions/exercises or the US-South Korea exercises in the Yellow Sea to which China has voiced strong opposition as per Reuters. 

On a separate note, Russian 'sleeper cell' spies arrested in the U.S., Newsweek reports what has baffled most experts is how little this type of espionage achieved and shockingly, the U.S. agents following these spies learnt more about Russian espionage than the Russians did about the U.S.!

Nuclear Suppliers Group 0: China 1

28 Jun 2010 8ak: With the Nuclear Suppliers Group meeting in New Zealand ignoring the China-Pak nuclear deal and unable to contain the ambitions of other rogue states like Myanmar (Myanmar's nuclear plans exposed"),  it is clear that the group is becoming irrelevant in the face of China's growing economic power. 

The NSG's inability to address these issues also exposed India's failure in foreign policy. While India is not a part of the NSG group and therefore unable to participate in the meetings, it failed to get friendly states to oppose the illegal and deadly transfer of technology. The U.S. has similarly failed as it had tried to stop the transfer of key reprocessing and enrichment technologies to non-NPT signatories. Analysts say that the exclusion that India got in 2008 put it in a difficult position to stop Pakistan from wanting to do the same. However, the two countries cannot be compared. While India has never supplied nuclear technology to other nations, Pakistan via A.Q. Khan are the centre of global nuclear proliferation. Secondly, unlike in India, there is a real threat of Pakistan's stockpile falling in to militant hands. 

The real danger though is China's two faced behaviour towards India. On the one hand it openly states its intention to develop closer trading relations with India but then continues to quietly aggravate India with border incursions, opposing India at international forums and continuing to illegally supply nuclear technology which will be without doubt be diverted to Pakistan making more nuclear weapons. 

How 300 Red Phones control China

08 Jun 2010 8ak: Great article from Sydney Morning Herald reviewing a book "The Party: The Secret World of China's Communist Rulers" (Buy it in India from Flipkart). In short, it explains how the Communist Party has installed an encrypted red phone that sits on the desks of the 300 most important people in China. The author alleges that all major decisions by the so called independent Chinese industry are made over conversations with the mostly invisible Communist Party.  

This has many lessons for India in general but specifically useful when dealing with telecom operators like Huawei. It is not only that India is concerned, Huawei is under investigations in many other countries including Australia for activities which connect its employees to espionage.

The other news was how journalists are controlled and news is manipulated to keep the Communist Regime in power. Mercury News (US) reports that a lecture titled "Understanding Journalistic Protocols for Covering Breaking News" given on May 15 Tianjin Foreign Studies University by a senior Xinhua official, Xia Lin gives a rare insight in to what the Communist regime expects from journalists. In short, manipulation towards glorification. 

Also read about China's $6.6 billion plan to take on U.S. media giants. 

China snubs US Defence Secretary Robert Gates, Americans question US' China policy

05 Jun 2010 8ak: China has snubbed US Defence Secretary Robert Gates request to visit China during his Asian tour. Amongst the alarmist response is this report from 'Dakota Voice' questioning U.S.'s China Policy and ending with a call to like-minded Americans to overthrow the current socialist government. The article begins "So often these days, I have to wonder if the people running the United States have a collective death wish." Other newspapers report that the U.S. continues to worry about the lack of transparency and China's refusal to hold dialogue will lead to misunderstandings and future confrontations. Besides China's naval build up, a key concern is the progress of ballistic missiles and a 5th Generation fighter within 8 years while the U.S. has canned its F-22 Raptor program. 

With the U.S.'s deteriorating relationship with Pakistan, India has the best chance to partner with a like-minded, multi-cultural, democratic nation and advance its own interest. As External Affairs Minister S. M. Krishna says that U.S. is India's top priority, the U.S. has reciprocated by promising support for India's permanent seat of the UN Security Council and President Obama has confirmed his November trip. 

Restricting India's move forward is that politicians are afraid of India being seen as a 'Dog of the Americans' and a trust deficit due to India-specific weapons given to Pakistan and the closeness with India coming not out of American realisation that we are a better partner, rather a snub by China.

U.S under no threat of losing naval supremacy

13 May 2010 8ak: China's growing naval power and its aggressiveness in the South China sea are worrying the U.S. as much as it is worrying India, Japan, Vietnam and other countries in the region. (On the left a rarely seen picture of a Chinese SSBN from Feng).

At US$82.69 billion, America's April budget deficit is double the estimates and understandable why a worried Defence Secretary, Robert Gates said "...we have to ask whether the nation can really afford a Navy that relies on $3 to $6 billion destroyers, $7 billion submarines, and $11 billion carriers”. 

This has lead to many sites publishing doomsday scenarios where the Chinese navy attacks U.S. carriers. The best one is from the Diplomat "China set for Naval Hegemony" which compares the recent sinking of a South Korean warship by a North Korean torpedo. Since the North Koreans have denied involvement, the South Koreans are at a loss on what to do with a increasing nuclear-capable, erratic neighbour. The article also sets out the various times in the past few years that China has challenged the U.S. in the South China sea. 

The loser is definitely (according to John Guardiano) the U.S.'s "aggressive foreign policy backed by the exercise of U.S. military power". So while it may mean that the U.S. may not be able to intervene in future Asian regional conflicts, it is not the end of the world. Because:-

• U.S. foreign policy isn't the best. In case of Pakistan, it continues to have negative consequences on the stability of the region
• U.S. still has the largest, most powerful navy in the world and its ability to inflict damage anywhere in the world is under no doubt. The U.S. Navy is also the 4th largest air force in the world. 
• U.S. defence spend is still as big as the rest of the world combined. It also has a long history of high R&D investments which give it force-multiplier weaponry. Take a single company, General Atomics and just in the last month the rapid progress in weapons development can be seen in two products - its aircraft carrier based Predator C unmanned airbourne surveillance and attack craft (see Air Attack) and stuff out of science fiction, a 200 mile electromagnetic rail cannon for the navy. 
• While China remains a threat, U.S. navy deputy secretary Bob Work, quoted in DoD Buzz.com, with an apparent reference to China, said that it would bankrupt itself if it got in to an arms race with the U.S. And while it may be hard to see in the current economic crisis, it would be true in the long run. Unlike the U.S., China's only friends are either rogue nations or bought over with money.
• After fighting two world wars with Germany, today they have a 0% probability of going to war. The U.S. has many friends in the Asian region like Singapore, Japan, Thailand, Korea, India etc with whom it can continue to strengthen relations through a common ideology on many fronts and they would together mitigate any real or perceived loss in U.S. naval supremacy while achieving similar objectives.

It should be remembered that neither the U.S., nor any other country in history, have held the prized role as the planet's unchallenged sole superpower for long. Less than two decades for the U.S. since the fall of the USSR. A foreign policy that accommodates others, may turn out to be, in its own best interests in the long run.